climate model - 大气化学与全球气候变化

Simulations of dissolved oxygen concentration in CMIP5 Earth system models

组内消息 2017-01-17

  Observation and model-simulated annual mean dissolved oxygen at the sea surface, with the zonal mean in the top-right panel. The observation is from the WOA09 dataset. Model simulations are from CMIP5 “esmHistorical” experiment of nine ESMs, each averaged from 1981 to 2005. Multi-model mean shows the average of all nine models.

The climatologies of dissolved oxygen concentration in the ocean simulated by nine Earth system models (ESMs) from the historical emission driven experiment of CMIP5 (Phase 5 of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project) are quantitatively evaluated by comparing the simulated oxygen to the WOA09 observation based on common statistical metrics. At the sea surface, distribution of dissolved oxygen is well simulated by all nine ESMs due to well-simulated sea surface temperature (SST), with both globally-averaged error and root mean square error (RMSE) close to zero, and both correlation coefficients and normalized standard deviation close to 1. However, the model performance differs from each other at the intermediate depth and deep ocean where important water masses exist. At the depth of 500 to 1 000 m where the oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) exist, all ESMs show a maximum of globally-averaged error and RMSE, and a minimum of the spatial correlation coefficient. In the ocean interior, the reason for model biases is complicated, and both the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) and the particulate organic carbon flux contribute to the biases of dissolved oxygen distribution. Analysis results show the physical bias contributes more. Simulation bias of important water masses such as North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW), Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) and North Pacific Intermediate Water (NPIW) indicated by distributions of MOCs greatly affects the distributions of oxygen in north Atlantic, Southern Ocean and north Pacific, respectively. Although the model simulations of oxygen differ greatly from each other in the ocean interior, the multi-model mean shows a better agreement with the observation.

Bao Ying, Li Yangchun. 2016. Simulations of dissolved oxygen concentration in CMIP5 Earth system models. Acta Oceanologica Sinica, 35(12): 28–37, doi: 10.1007/s13131-016-0959-x

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Global Air–Sea CO2 Flux in 22 CMIP5 Models: Multiyear Mean and Interannual Variability

组内消息 2017-01-17

One standard deviation of the air–sea CO2 flux (10−9 kg m−2 s−1) among 18 models (the four models CMCC-CESM, INM-CM4.0, and GISS-E2-H/R-CC are excluded), based on the annual mean air–sea CO2 flux of the 18 models during 1996–2004. It indicates where models differ most in terms of air–sea CO2 flux.

To assess the capability of the latest Earth system models (ESMs) in representing historical global air–sea CO2 flux, 22 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparision Project (CMIP5) are analyzed, with a focus on the spatial distribution of multiyear mean and interannual variability. Results show that the global distribution of air–sea CO2 flux is reasonable in most of the models and that the main differences between models and observationally based results exist in regions with strong vertical movement. The annual mean flux in the 18-member multimodel ensemble (MME; four models were excluded because of their poor performances) mean during 1996–2004 is 1.95 PgC/yr (1 Pg = 1015 g; positive values mean into the ocean), and all but one model describe the rapid increasing trend of air–sea CO2 flux observed during 1960–2000. The first mode of the global air–sea CO2 flux variability during 1870–2000 in six of the models represents the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) mode. The remaining 12 models fail to represent this important character for the following reasons: in five models, the tropical Pacific does not play a dominant role in the interannual variability of global air–sea CO2 flux because of stronger interannual variability in the Southern Ocean; two models poorly represent the interannual fluctuation of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in the surface ocean of the tropical Pacific; and four models have shorter periods of the air–sea CO2 flux, which are out of the period range of ENSO events.

Dong F, Li Y, Wang B, et al. Global Air–Sea CO2Flux in 22 CMIP5 Models: Multiyear Mean and Interannual Variability[J]. Journal of Climate, 2016, 29(7): 2407-2431*
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